Henry Louis Mencken once observed that for, “every problem there is a solution which is simple, clean and wrong.” In the aftermath of their election shellacking, Republicans are coalescing around the notion that illegal alien amnesty legislation is a necessary step that solves their problems. In fact, such action would only erode the GOP base, and empower Democrats.
Party will Split. Polls show most Republican voters favor enforcement over amnesty. Core conservatives will reject any amnesty agenda fueled by the business wing of the GOP and lose faith in a party that is compromising their rule-of-law values. Given that 17 percent of self-identified conservatives voted for Obama in the recent election the lesson is – win back your party faithful first before you begin pandering to immigrant voters.
American Workers will Rebel. Bush-McCain-Kennedy couldn’t get amnesty passed in 2007 when the unemployment was 4.5 percent. Now that the unemployment rate has grown to 7.9 percent, it will be nearly impossible to convince Americans that amnesty offers them anything except more competition for jobs and a tougher scramble for limited community resources. Workers will wonder whose interests Republicans really have at heart.
Republicans will get no Credit. No matter how well intentioned the GOP might be heading into a bi-partisan negotiating session to enact amnesty legislation, past politics dictate that Democrats will take credit and accuse Republicans of being obstructionists. Republicans lose even if a bill wins.
Democrats will get 12 Million New Voters. Since this is one critical area that seems to elude Republicans the most, we’ll lay it out in the simplest possible terms:
Fact One: Most low income people don’t vote for Republicans.
Fact Two: Most illegal aliens are low income because they’re poorly skilled.
Fact Three: An amnesty would not change that but it would make 12 million illegal aliens legally eligible for needed government benefits and thus, predisposed to vote for the party of big government.
Fact Four: Republicans go the way of Kodak and Twinkies.
Amnesty Will Lead to More Amnesty. Legalization for 12 million illegal aliens would send a message worldwide that periodic amnesty is the de-facto American immigration policy, creating a powerful incentive for further flows and future amnesties.